Shards Draft Dilemma: Slow and Steady or All-in?
bdm | November 17, 2008 | 2:46 pmI was in a draft this weekend and the following gameplay situation came up and I am not sure which is the correct way to play it out. Basically I was up against local Level 3 judge Eric Smith and his Grixis-Esper monstrosity which featured six or seven pingers and plenty of instant speed removal including multiple Grixis Charms I had seen in previous games. I was bashing for three a turn with Waveskimmer Aven while Eric was swinging back for three points a turn with Cloudheath Drake. Eric had recently played a Stinger but I was way ahead on damage. I had gotten Eric down to two life and was holding Call to Heel in my hand, which I had planned to use if he had a removal spell for my Aven, and he used the vigilance ability on his Drake intending to chump block my Aven. My dilemma is this:
- Do I continue to play it slow and steady? Sit back on my Call to Heel in case he has a trick, let him chump my Aven, and hope to finish him off next turn. Eric had all his mana untapped at the time and if he drew anything/was holding anything for my Aven he would have plenty of mana to play it plus I would be giving him a card with the Call to Heel. Even if he drew another blocker he would have to invest his mana into that creature and I would be able to more safely bounce it and swing for the win.
- Or do I go all-in and press for the win? I could attack, allow my Exalted to resolve, and bounce his Drake. Statistically it is most likely that he is going to draw a creature or a land off of the card and — assuming he was not sitting on a spell the whole time — not be able to do anything about my attacker.
I chose the slow-and-steady approach and Eric did the only thing he could do — putting his Drake in the path of the on-coming Aven. He peeled the next card of his deck for what he seemed resigned to accepting as his last turn of the game and happily slammed Sharuum the Hegemon into play. The recently departed Drake jumped back onto the board and my chances of winning the game plummeted to about zero. I would need to draw the second Call to Heel, bounce both fliers, AND have Eric draw nothing to deal with my Aven. I ended up losing the game, the match, and ultimately the draft for my team as a result.
Although, to be fair, I was down a game to Eric’s ridiculous deck to begin with and he swept through the draft with little resistance. None of which changes my initial dilemma about whether or not I should have just pushed all-in for the game or not. What would you have done under the same circumstances? You do know he has Sharuum in his deck and multiple instants speed removals and bounce such as Grixis Charm and Resounding Wave.
I think playing it slow was the correct play, but of course in hindsight it ended up ending the game for you. How many cards did he have in hand, and how many instant removal spells had he already played? I assume he had 7+ mana open…
It depends on how much mana he had. He paid 2 in order to give his drake Vigilance so its unlikely he had any way to bounce your guy in hand. I think the odds of you winning based on bouncing his guy and giving him a single draw are a lot better then waiting a turn and giving him that same draw as the amount of instant speed bounce/removal is likely much lower then the bounce/removal/flying creatures that he can draw into.
Essentially I’d go all in make him draw a instant and get my guy back down that turn assuming he didn’t get killed.
From what you’re saying he hasn’t been paying to give it vigilance at all until you got him to the point where he had to block correct? Because this seems to tell me (obviously looking at it from a hindsight type perspective) that he doesn’t have anything else.
He has changed his routine in the game because you’ve forced him to. He wouldn’t have done this if he had another answer I suspect, so taking the chance is definitely what I would do.
The other reasoning I’d be looking at is that if there’s anything else left in your deck BDM. Were you all in on the Waveskimmer by this point or was there anything else you could draw to get the last points if your Waveskimmer died?
Use trick, top card removal: boned
Don’t use trick, top card removal: game progresses, both players get to look at more cards
Use trick, top card safe: WIN~!
Don’t use trick, top card safe: Either win, or he draws a (non sharuum) creature and we’re back to square one.
My assessment is probably wrong, but the way I see it - either way, not using the trick just gives what is apparently a superior deck more chances to outclass you. Are you ever going to out-draw this deck? It doesn’t seem likely from your description. Make him have it NOW, or the loss seems inevitable.