November 10th LI Bonus Exercise
Sadin | November 10, 2009 | 3:14 pmHey Top8Magicians,
I posted a Bonus Exercise in this week’s Limited Information <http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/li/64> and I wondered what you would do.
You’ve just drafted and constructed the following deck:
Zendikar Draft Deck
|
Main Deck 40 cards |
||
| 10 Forest 1 Kazandu Refuge 7 Mountain 18 lands |
1 Baloth Woodcrasher 1 Frontier Guide 1 Geyser Glider 2 Grazing Gladehart 1 Greenweaver Druid 1 Highland Berserker 1 Mold Shambler 1 Oran-Rief Recluse 1 Oran-Rief Survivalist 1 Shatterskull Giant 1 Territorial Baloth 1 Timbermaw Larva 1 Torch Slinger 1 Vastwood Gorger 15 creatures |
1 Gigantiform 1 Harrow 2 Inferno Trap 1 Khalni Heart Expedition 1 Savage Silhouette 1 Vines of Vastwood 7 other spells |
You sit down for your first match and draw this hand:
Forest, Mountain, Mountain, Khalni Heart Expedition, Territorial Baloth, Baloth Woodcrasher, Gigantiform
Do you keep this hand on the play? How about on the draw? Why?
XOXO,
Steve
Ship it on the play and on the draw. That hand doesn’t actually do anything before turn 5… which is way too slow for this draft format. Consider how the deck looks, I would however keep that hand on the play if one of those spells were a 4 drop and I would keep that hand play and draw if any of those spells were a turn 3 or earlier play.
I keep it on the play and the draw. of the 33 cards left in your deck 15 are lands and one is a Harrow and another is a Greenweaver Druid. Thats half your deck. You also have about six other spells you could draw and cast without any other land. You are gonna draw three cards before you could possibly miss a land drop. As far as the format being fast, most your stuff is up high on the curve, shuffling it back and taking one less card isn’t gonna make it cheaper.
If you do pull the harrow its just explosive! Seven lands to play with on turn 4, that would be sick! (obviously that doesn’t play into keeping or not keeping the hand)
Thats how I would play it.
Ship it. Way, WAY too slow for this format. You have no way to survive until turn 5. You have to ship it, despite it being pretty bomby.
November 10th LI Bonus Exercise…
Your story has been summoned to the battlefield - Trackback from MTGBattlefield…
I think it’s kinda close. You only really get screwed if you draw nothing but lands, or vines of vastwood and savage silhouette. Every other spell you draw will come out before turn 5. I’d still ship it on the play, but I’d think about keeping on the draw, depending on what, if anything, I know anything about the opposition.
Always keep. Looking at the deck, the odds of you having a faster draw aren’t that high, and even if you get a faster draw that certainly doesn’t guarantee you have a chance to win. You have a reasonable chance of killing your opponent on turn 7 with this draw: hit a couple forests and a 4-mana or less guy. Also, most of your deck is a “good” draw with this hand: lands and cheaper spells. I’m not sure how you are going to improve on it.
I think the biggest mistake would be to bet on winning a draft with this deck in this format
gcb
Keep it on the play. Ship it on the draw.
On the draw, you can mull and hope to get a slightly faster start to keep pace with your opponent.
On the play, I would say keep. Especially since that Khalini Expidition should help you get to 6 lands very reliably.
Like the guy above (gcb) says, you might as well keep the hand because your deck is slow anyway. In Zendikar, the slow decklist you’ve got seems to be subpar, but you’d have to play it out to know for sure.
The problem with this hand is that you need to draw 3 lands to activate the expedition and woodcrasher, but if you draw 3 lands you are not drawing spells and will likely die….
Good point though in that you might have to keep and just pray to draw a gladeheart given that a mull is unlikely to draw something faster
One important piece of information is left out. Where is this draft taking place? Is this a local FNM draft or is this a PT/GP draft?
FNM drafts tend to be more casual and players are less aware of what decks are the best, and so they draft cards and slower decks that they like. Considering the number of remaining lands as well as excellent topdecks such as Harrow, Greenweaver Druid, and 2x Glazing Gladeheart among some other decent topdecks, I think this hand is fine to keep on the play and draw.
At a PT or GP, the story is likely different since players are going to be aware that they usually need to draft quick, aggressive decks and avoid the slower decks and starting hands. It could be close on the play, but I’d lean to a mulligan, and I think being on the draw is enough to push it over to a mulligan.
Ship both. Didn’t really look at the list, but the hand is unplayable.
You really don’t have that many good early drops anyways. You only have (2) two drops that you would call defensive. So your odds in getting those guys in an opening hand after a mulligan is only 32%
You have 13 creatures that are 4 drop or less….Torch Stinger really is a 5 drop, Shambler and Recluses are most effective as 6 drops..
I would definately keep on the draw….you have the 3 best cards in your deck in your hand. On the play a bit more dicier, but how much better can you expect with 6. You basically already have all the lands to play most of the remaining creatures in your deck. You need to draw a land in the next 3 draws (about 80%) to be able to play any other creature (possibly not kicked) in your deck.
I’d say keep on the draw for sure. On the play I’m less certain, but I’d probably still keep. It’s a slow hand, but just like the previous two posters stated the deck itself is pretty glacial. Just the fact that the hand has SOMETHING you can do on turn 2 makes it decent for this deck. There aren’t many hands of 6 that are going to look that much better. If you draw a 2 or a 3 drop in your first 3 draws, you have a decent chance of winning this one. I’d rather keep a hand with a plan (play lands into Baloths with a Khalani ready to sacrifice) than ship it and get something like 3 land, Gueyser Glider, Vines of Vastwood, Vastwood Gorger.
@Curtis: When I’m holding Gigantiform, Torch Slinger is definitely a 3-drop, and Recluse might be too, depending on what the opponent is doing. Mold Shambler is totally fine at 4. @Dane: The decklist is extremely relevant. In a vacuum, this hand is pretty awful, but what are the chances of drawing a better six with the deck?
Keep it cuz you have the expedition and three more mana coming up but sure you won’t be able to drop anything down until turn 5 but if you ship it then you will lose card advantage and more than likely you will either get a slower hand or a hand that you can play something at turn 3 or 4.
So everyone that would keep this hand is saying they would rather lose than mulligan? Sounds like a good plan.
There is a decent amount of cards can play on turns two and three in this deck: Frontier Guide, double Gladehart, Greenweaver Druid, Highland Berserker, Recluse, Suvivalist, Torch Slinger, Harrow. A mulligan would increase the odds of you drawing them more than keeping and hoping to mise, so shipping it back and trying not to die before your late game comes online is clearly right.